Threatcasting: A Brief History

It All Started at Intel

At the outset of the 21st century, at the Intel Corporation, Brian David Johnson assumed the role of Chief Futurist, tasked with forecasting the technological needs and requirements a decade into the future. This foresight was crucial for Intel, a leading high-tech manufacturer, where the lifecycle of designing, developing, and deploying a microprocessor spanned nearly ten years. Johnson's role encapsulated the development of methodologies aimed at steering towards favorable futures while evading potential adverse outcomes.

Intel's engagement with Johnson as a Futurist extended beyond semiconductor innovation. It became integral to strategic planning across the company, influencing workforce development, software engineering, and the cultivation of a collaborative ecosystem essential for harnessing the forthcoming computational capabilities. This forward-looking approach facilitated internal capability development, influenced strategic alliances, and even guided merger and acquisition strategies. Johnson's insights led to the inception of several patents, underscoring the method's tangible benefits in intellectual property generation.

Intel's successful application of the Threatcasting Method piqued the interest of various organizations, prompting its adoption beyond Silicon Valley. Collaborations with the United States Air Force Academy and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) refined the method further. In 2016, Brian David Johnson left Intel.  

In 2017, the Threatcasting Lab was established at Arizona State University (ASU). Co-founded by Cyndi Coon and Brian David Johnson, the lab was created with the dual purpose of further developing the Threatcasting Method and serving as a hub for convening workshops, publishing, creating sci-fi prototypes, and training both practitioners and students. The lab's mission was to provide strategic insights, teaching materials, and exceptional subject matter expertise on Threatcasting, a methodology designed to envision potential threats a decade into the future. By offering organizations and institutions actionable models, the lab aimed to enable a comprehensive understanding of these potential futures. The lab's outputs — including reports, sci-fi prototypes, experiential research, programming, and educational materials — were designed to bridge informational gaps and foster exchange and learning across a broad spectrum of communities, including the military, academia, industry, and government.

Textbook by Brian David Johnson, Cyndi Coon, and Natalie Vanatta

The Threatcasting Lab at ASU quickly became recognized as a premier resource in its field, attracting collaborations with diverse organizations. These partnerships have been instrumental in refining the methodology and expanding its application beyond its initial tech industry origins. For instance, the lab has engaged with the U.S. Army Cyber Command and the U.S. Army Cyber Center of Excellence, focusing on preventing strategic surprises and ensuring cyber dominance. Such collaborations have not only validated the methodology but also contributed to a multidisciplinary approach to envisioning and preventing future threats.

Threatcasting guards against strategic surprise. When a crisis occurs, or an opportunity presents itself, a decision-maker is not caught off guard. Instead, their reply is: “We have talked about this before. We know where to start…”

Threatcasting.ai is Born

With Threatcasting swiftly outgrowing the university space, Cyndi Coon joined forces in September 2024 with Connexions Global Network, LLC, a force multiplier for strategic efforts that align with its education-centric mission, to launch Threatcasting.ai. Supported by the Connexions' team and a constellation of bright minds including futurists and educators, Cyndi is taking Threatcasting to a whole new stage of implementation, bringing in countless partners around the world.

Threatcasting continues to develop through the power of human-centric, collaborative, interdisciplinary research that shapes the future. By equipping individuals and organizations with the experiential understanding and tools to envision and act upon potential futures, Threatcasting plays a crucial role in proactive threat mitigation and the creation of more resilient and secure societies. We look forward to helping you envision your future.